Economic Indicators

Another prevalent form of polling is consumer indexing, which measures consumer optimism toward economic conditions. For example, the New Jersey Index of Consumer Performance and Index of Consumer Intentions, created by PublicMind and sponsored by FDU’s Silberman College of Business, is among PublicMind’s most widely reported surveys. This annual economic poll examines how New Jerseyans expect their finances to change during the coming year and what major purchases they are contemplating, plus it looks back to compare last year’s predictions with the current outcome.

This year’s results, released January 24 and picked up by the AP, were covered in papers as far away as Fort Worth, Texas. James Almeida, associate dean of the Silberman College of Business and an academic associate of the PublicMind, reported, “The past 12 months were an uncertain period for the New Jersey consumer, and these results reflect an equal uncertainly about the coming year.” Even while two of three adults (64 percent) reported that their own financial conditions improved or stayed the same over the past year, only one in four (24 percent) thought business conditions in the state improved in 2006. A majority (60 percent) said business conditions in the state were the same (19 percent) or worse (41 percent).

Numbers like this can encourage people to save their pennies for a rainy day or to curb their credit-card spending. In more optimistic times, consumer indexes such as these may spur spending on big-ticket items like homes, cars, computers and vacations. By tracking such economic data, savvy businesses can modify the release of products such as high-end electronics or updated computer technology to coincide with an economic upswing and thus get bigger buy-in from consumers.

To Market, to Market

Most polling research is done behind the scenes and is not meant for wide distribution. Every major product developer has participated to some extent in market research, and this type of commissioned study is the backbone supporting independent institutes like PublicMind.

Product development is enhanced by looking at public opinion or by testing the public’s reaction to actual products. “TMR was once hired to survey people about environmentally friendly baby diapers,” says Mrozinski. “We actually sent people test diapers in the mail with an attached survey to fill out.” Calvanelli reports that total market research and polling revenue continues to grow, with more and more work commissioned by “untraditional sources” such as the business-to-business market. “I estimate that nearly 50 percent of my total company revenue comes from the B2B segment — mostly health care, technology and financial services,” he says.

Idol Pleasure

Americans seem to love numbers of all kinds. Last year, President Bush hosted “American Idol” winner Taylor Hicks and the other top-10 finalists in the Oval Office. Newspapers, including USA Today were quick to report that 63 million votes had been cast for Hicks in the season finale — 4 million more than the 59 million votes Bush received in 2004. (Voters can, however, cast more than one ballot on “American Idol.”)

Interactive television polls — although not scientifically valid — are extremely popular. Television programs and Internet sites ranging from contests to news programs frequently ask audience members to vote on a question electronically, either via the Internet, text messages or calls to a specific telephone number.

While these interactive-television or Web experiences are popular among viewers and many receive great media coverage, they do not constitute genuine research. “They are not polls at all,” says Woolley. These respondents represent only a narrow segment of the population and are in no way randomized. “These are really just ways to make watching a television program a more interactive, rather than passive, experience,” he explains.

Another survey on “The Sopranos,” done in May before the final episode aired, showed that viewers wanted Tony Soprano to survive the end of the series.

But culture and entertainment do not lie outside the realm of valid polling. For instance, PublicMind, in its initial year, conducted a poll of New Jerseyans and people throughout the country on their opinions of the state and of the HBO hit program “The Sopranos.” The poll showed that two-thirds of Sopranos viewers nationally and three-quarters of those in New Jersey did not believe the show portrayed Italian-Americans in a negative way, as some opponents of the show claimed. Majorities of both groups also felt the show did not glorify organized crime.

Another survey on “The Sopranos,” done in May before the final episode aired, showed that viewers wanted Tony Soprano to survive the end of the series. Media coverage of these surveys ranged from local papers such as The Record and The Star-Ledger to The New York Times’ Metro Section and Yahoo!News.

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For a print copy of FDU Magazine, featuring this and other stories, contact Rebecca Maxon, editor, 201-692-7024 or maxon@fdu.edu.