FDU Poll Finds Even SALT Deduction Can’t Save Trump Budget Support in NJ

logo for FDU poll

NJ Transit Gets Passing Marks from Most Voters

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, July 30, 2025 – While the recently passed federal budget accomplishes a major goal of New Jersey’s congressional delegation by increasing the federal SALT deduction cap, the bill overall is viewed unfavorably by most voters, and the temporary tax cut doesn’t do much to change that. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, voters also hold middling views of NJ Transit, with the average New Jersey voters awarding it a C.

“The hope was that putting in the SALT deduction would make the budget bill more palatable to voters,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, and the Executive Director of the FDU Poll. “But even voters who are going to get a tax cut from this bill don’t seem to like it.”

While the budget bill had a number of provisions, like tax cuts targeted at wealthier Americans, that are generally viewed through a partisan lens, it also contained a temporary increase in the federal deduction for state and local taxes (SALT). Increasing the SALT deduction cap – a provision which only impacts residents of a few high tax states, including New Jersey – has been a major goal of both Democratic and Republican lawmakers in New Jersey since the deduction was capped during the first Trump administration. The bill increased the SALT deduction for most taxpayers from $10,000 this year to $40,000 next year, then by 1 percent per year after that, until 2030, when it reverts back to $10,000.

To measure the effects of the SALT cap increase on support for the bill overall, respondents were randomly assigned to one of two versions of the question about the budget bill. Both versions of the question noted that it cuts spending, and provides tax breaks for wealthier Americans, but half of the respondents were also reminded that it temporarily increased the SALT deduction. While mentioning this doesn’t increase support for the bill overall, it does lead to higher levels of support among some groups, even as it’s underwater among nearly all demographics.

Overall, 27 percent of likely voters in the state say that they approve of the budget bill, with 61 percent disapproving. Democrats are nearly unanimous in opposition, with 94 percent saying that they disapprove of the bill, along with 64 percent of independents, but 62 percent of Republicans say that they approve of it.

“These figures are very much in line with how the bill is viewed nationally,” said Cassino. “Tax cuts are generally pretty popular but pairing them with cuts in healthcare spending more than cancels out that support.”

Mentioning the temporary SALT deduction cap increase in the question doesn’t significantly change approval or disapproval among partisans, but it does increase the proportion of independents who say that they support the bill, from 14 percent to 22 percent. This increase is cancelled out in the overall numbers by a non-significant 3 point drop in approval among the larger group of Democrats in the state.

“The bump in support among independents is good news for Republican incumbents like Tom Kean, Jr, who voted for the bill,” said Cassino. “But even an eight-point increase isn’t great when sixty percent of independents say that they oppose the bill.”

Similarly, the mention of the temporary SALT deduction cap increases support for the bill overall among likely voters who say that they own their homes (or are paying a mortgage), from 30 percent to 35 percent, while decreasing it insignificantly among renters (who are less likely to approve in any condition).

“You might imagine that voters in New Jersey would be thrilled to get even a temporary increase in the SALT deduction cap,” said Cassino. “But that doesn’t seem to be enough for most people to get past the parts of the bill that they don’t like.”

Of course, there are some issues that unite Democrats and Republicans in New Jersey, like views of NJ Transit. In the poll, voters were asked to give the transit agency a letter grade, with C narrowly edging out B as the most common answer. There’s also no sign of partisan cheerleading in the grades awarded:, with Republicans and Democrats giving almost the same scores.

Still, only six percent of voters give NJ Transit a grade of A – about the same as the eight percent giving it a failing grade of F. Scores are also about even throughout the various regions of the state, despite the differences in the services offered by the agency between say, the northeast portion (32 percent A or B, 14 percent D or F) of the state and the coastal counties (34 percent A or B, 22 percent D or F).

“It’s been six years since Governor Murphy vowed to fix NJ Transit, even if it killed him, and while it’s getting a passing grade from most voters, there’s still lots of room for improvement,” said Cassino.

Methodology

The FDU Poll is a proud member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and is devoted to ensuring that our results are presented in such a way that anyone can quickly and easily get all of the information that they may need to evaluate the validity of our surveys. We believe that transparency is the key to building trust in the work of high-quality public opinion research, and necessary to push our industry forward.

The survey was conducted between July 17 and 23, 2025, using a voter list of registered voters in New Jersey carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Contact attempts were limited to registered voters who had voted in one or both of the last two NJ gubernatorial elections or were newly registered since the last NJ gubernatorial election. These respondents were considered likely voters if they met these criteria and said that they intended to vote in November’s gubernatorial election.

Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 806 registered voters in the state. Surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews to landlines (282) and cellphones (82) and the remainder (442) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of registered voters in New Jersey. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.2, largely driven by the weights used on the race/ethnicity variable.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 806 registered voters is +/-3.4 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-3.9 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

806 Likely Voters in New Jersey

Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

Man

47% N = 375
Woman

51% N = 414
Some Other Way

1% N = 6

18-30

16% N = 128
31-44

22% N = 179
45-64

32% N = 262
65+

30% N = 237

White

68% N = 550
Black

12% N = 95
Hispanic/Latino/a

12% N = 96
Asian

3% N = 25
MENA

2% N = 12
Other/Multi-racial

3% N = 27

No college degree

57% N = 458
College degree or more

42% N = 334

Democrat (including leaners)

45% N = 324
Independent (no lean)

16% N = 115
Republican (including leaners)

38% N = 272

Question Wording and Order

Now, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the upcoming Gubernatorial Election

First off, we’d like to ask you about this Fall’s race for governor.

NJ1. In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]

Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
Probably vote for Sherrill
Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
Probably won’t vote
Not sure [Vol]
Vote for Someone else [Vol]
[DK/REF]

Respondents are randomly assigned (50/50) to get either:

NJ1 -> Local Items -> NJ2 -> National Items or

NJ1 -> National Items -> NJ2 -> Local Items

Local Items

[Intervening items held for later release]

L7. If you were to give NJ Transit a letter grade, like students get in school, what grade would you give NJ Transit? An A, a B, a C, a D or an F?

A
B
C
D
F
Not Sure [VOL]
DK/Ref [VOL]

[Intervening items held for later release]

National Items

Before getting back to New Jersey issues, we’d like to ask a few questions about national politics.

N1. Do you approve, or disapprove, of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure [Vol]
DK/Ref [vol]

[Randomly assign to N2A or N2B]

N2A. Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things. On the whole, do you support or oppose this bill?

Support
Oppose
Not Sure [Vol]
DK/Ref [vol]

N2B. Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things, like temporarily increasing how much of their property taxes homeowners can deduct from their taxes. On the whole, do you support or oppose this bill?

Support
Oppose
Not Sure [Vol]
DK/Ref [vol]

N3. When it comes to deporting immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally, would you say the Trump administration is doing…

Too much
Too Little
About the right amount

N4. Regardless of your own immigration or citizenship status, how much, if at all, do you worry that you, a family member, or a close friend could be deported?

A Lot
Some
Not Much
Not at All

NJ2. Just to confirm, in this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]

Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
Probably vote for Sherrill
Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
Probably won’t vote
Not sure [Vol]
Vote for Someone else [Vol]
[DK/REF]

Demographics

Just a few more questions, for statistical purposes

D1. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?

Democrat
Republican
Independent [ASK D1A]
Something Else/Other
DK/Ref [vol]

D1A. [Ask only if D1 is 3] Which way do you lean?

Democrat
Republican
Independent
Something Else/Other
DK/Ref [vol]

D1B. In addition, which of the following terms would you use to describe your political views? You can choose as many as you like. [Shuffle Order]

Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Socialist
Progressive
Libertarian
Make America Great Again or MAGA
Nationalist

D2A. To ensure we are reaching people of all ages, would you please tell me your age?

____ (ENTER AGE: 98=98+, 99 = REFUSED)

[IF Don’t Know/REFUSED IN QD1, ASK:]

D2B. Would you be willing to tell us whether it’s between…?

Under 30
31 to 44
45 to 64
65 or over
[Refused]

D6. Do you own or rent your current residence?

Own [or have a mortgage]
Rent
Something else [vol]
DK/REF [vol]

D3. What was the last grade in school you completed? [CODE TO LIST]

Did not complete High School
High School Diploma or equivalent
Vocational or Trade School
Some college, but no degree
Associates, or other 2 year degree
Bachelor’s Degree
Graduate work, such as Law, MBA, Medical School, or similar
Refused (VOL)

D4. How would you describe your sex? Do you describe yourself as …

A Man
A Woman
Some other way
[DK/REF]

D5. How would you describe your racial and ethnic background? You can pick as many as you’d like.

White
Black
Asian
Hispanic/Latino/a/Spanish
Middle Eastern or North African (MENA)
Other or Multi-Racial
[Dk/Ref]

Release Tables

Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things [, like temporarily increasing how much of their property taxes homeowners can deduct from their taxes]. On the whole, do you support or oppose this bill?
	All	Dem	Indp	Rep
Support	27%	6%	18%	62%
Oppose	61%	94%	64%	21%
Not Sure	11%	1%	18%	15%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	–	–	2%

Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things [, like temporarily increasing how much of their property taxes homeowners can deduct from their taxes]. On the whole, do you support or oppose this bill?
	All	Mentions SALT	No Mention of SALT
Support	27%	27%	26%
Oppose	61%	62%	60%
Not Sure	11%	11%	12%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	1%	2%

Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things [, like temporarily increasing how much of their property taxes homeowners can deduct from their taxes]. On the whole, do you support or oppose this bill?
	Dem – No SALT	Dem- SALT	Indp – No SALT	Indp – SALT	Rep – No SALT	Rep – SALT
Support	7%	4%	14%	22%	61%	63%
Oppose	93%	94%	67%	60%	21%	21%
Not Sure	1%	2%	19%	17%	16%	14%
DK/Refuse	–	–	–	–	2%	1%

Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things [, like temporarily increasing how much of their property taxes homeowners can deduct from their taxes]. On the whole, do you support or oppose this bill?
	All	Own	Rent
Support	27%	32%	18%
Oppose	61%	58%	65%
Not Sure	11%	8%	16%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	1%	0%

Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things [, like temporarily increasing how much of their property taxes homeowners can deduct from their taxes]. On the whole, do you support or oppose this bill?
	Own – No SALT	Own – SALT	Rent – No SALT	Rent – SALT
Support	30%	35%	20%	18%
Oppose	59%	58%	61%	69%
Not Sure	9%	6%	19%	13%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	1%	1%	–

If you were to give NJ Transit a letter grade, like students get in school, what grade would you give NJ Transit?
	All	Dem	Indp	Rep
A	6%	5%	4%	8%
B	28%	30%	20%	31%
C	30%	36%	30%	25%
D	13%	10%	16%	16%
F	8%	5%	7%	5%
Not Sure	10%	10%	16%	9%
Don’t Know/Refused	5%	5%	8%	7%

If you were to give NJ Transit a letter grade, like students get in school, what grade would you give NJ Transit?
	Northeast	Urban Core	Central	Northwest	Coast	South
A	5%	9%	3%	6%	5%	7%
B	27%	31%	31%	25%	29%	25%
C	33%	33%	34%	27%	20%	35%
D	10%	16%	11%	14%	12%	13%
F	4%	5%	5%	2%	10%	6%
Not Sure	13%	5%	14%	17%	14%	11%
Don’t Know/Refused	9%	1%	2%	10%	9%	5%