FDU Poll Finds 28% of NJ Voters Worried About Deportation

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Trump approval at 37% among likely voters statewide

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, July 31, 2025 – President Donald Trump’s better than expected performance in New Jersey last year has bolstered Republican hopes of turning the state red, but unpopular immigration policies have left many voters worried about deportations and Trump’s approval is deep underwater. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, more than 1 in 4 (28 percent) of likely voters in the state say that they’re worried about deportations hitting themselves or their family, a figure that reaches 50 percent among Hispanic or Latino/a voters.

“Trump’s approval has been low nationally, and he isn’t any more popular in New Jersey than anywhere else,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, and the Executive Director of the FDU Poll. “If Republicans want to make a play for the state, the administration’s immigration policies, or at least how they’re being enforced, are going to be a problem.”

Just 37 percent of likely voters in New Jersey say that they approve of the job Trump is doing as President, a number driven almost entirely by the partisan balance of the state, and in line with recent national polls. Ninety-two percent of Democrats say that they disapprove of the job he’s doing, with only 5 percent approving, while 88 percent of Republicans approve. Trump is also in negative territory among the smaller group of voters who say that they don’t lean towards either party, 28 to 58, but those voters are also much more likely to say that they’re not sure how they feel about the President. That approval figure among independents is almost identical to the 29 percent approval among independent nationally in the most recent Gallup poll.

While Trump’s job approval is underwater among white voters in the state, with 42 percent approving, and 53 percent disapproving, those are much better numbers than he nets among other racial and ethnic groups. Despite some signs of increased support among Black and Latino constituencies in the last election, Trump remains very unpopular with these groups in New Jersey. Only 21 percent of Black voters in the state say that they approve of the job he’s doing as President, a figure which is only marginally higher (30 percent) among Hispanic voters. The only major demographic group where Trump approval is positive is white men: 49 percent approve of the job he’s doing, with 47 percent disapproving.

“Last year’s Presidential election was much closer than anyone was expecting in New Jersey,” said Cassino. “But if Trump had the opportunity to turn that into lasting support in the state, it seems to be gone now.”

In addition to Presidential job approval, the survey also asked questions about the administration’s signature policies on immigration. Fifty-five percent of voters say that the administration is doing “too much” when it comes to deporting immigrants living in the US illegally, with only 10 percent saying that they’re not doing enough. As might be expected, these figures vary widely by party: 85 percent of Democrats say that the administration is doing too much, but only 15 percent of Republicans agree.

“A lot of what we’re seeing on immigration is thermostatic public opinion,” said Cassino. “When policy swings one way, voters tend to go to the other, so being tough on immigration was always likely to lead to voters saying that you’re going too far.”

Hispanic or Latino/a voters are more likely than members of other groups to say that the administration is doing “too much” to remove undocumented immigrants, with 64 percent saying that the policies have gone too far. They’re also much more likely than members of other groups to say that they worry “some” or “a lot” that they, a family member or a close friend could be deported: that figure is 25 percent among white voters, 32 percent among Black voters, and 50 percent among Hispanic or Latino/a voters. Overall, 28 percent of voters in New Jersey worry at least “some” about the deportations, with concerns concentrated in the urban core counties of Essex and Hudson, where 43 percent say that they’re worried “some” or “a lot.” Because the sample is drawn from a list of registered voters in New Jersey, it necessarily only includes citizens, not green card holders, DACA recipients, or other residents, documented or not.

“We haven’t seen the sort of large-scale immigration raids in New Jersey that have happened in California, but that doesn’t mean people aren’t scared,” said Cassino. “In a state with so many immigrants, those policies hit harder here than in other states.”

Methodology

The FDU Poll is a proud member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and is devoted to ensuring that our results are presented in such a way that anyone can quickly and easily get all of the information that they may need to evaluate the validity of our surveys. We believe that transparency is the key to building trust in the work of high-quality public opinion research, and necessary to push our industry forward.

The survey was conducted between July 17 and 23, 2025, using a voter list of registered voters in New Jersey carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Contact attempts were limited to registered voters who had voted in one or both of the last two NJ gubernatorial elections or were newly registered since the last NJ gubernatorial election. These respondents were considered likely voters if they met these criteria and said that they intended to vote in November’s gubernatorial election.

Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 806 registered voters in the state. Surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews to landlines (282) and cellphones (82) and the remainder (442) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of registered voters in New Jersey. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.2, largely driven by the weights used on the race/ethnicity variable.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 806 registered voters is +/-3.4 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-3.9 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

806 Likely Voters in New Jersey

Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

Man

47% N = 375
Woman

51% N = 414
Some Other Way

1% N = 6

18-30

16% N = 128
31-44

22% N = 179
45-64

32% N = 262
65+

30% N = 237

White

68% N = 550
Black

12% N = 95
Hispanic/Latino/a

12% N = 96
Asian

3% N = 25
MENA

2% N = 12
Other/Multi-racial

3% N = 27

No college degree

57% N = 458
College degree or more

42% N = 334

Democrat (including leaners)

45% N = 324
Independent (no lean)

16% N = 115
Republican (including leaners)

38% N = 272

Question Wording and Order

[Earlier questions held for later release]

Now, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the upcoming Gubernatorial Election

First off, we’d like to ask you about this Fall’s race for governor.

NJ1. In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]

Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
Probably vote for Sherrill
Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
Probably won’t vote
Not sure [Vol]
Vote for Someone else [Vol]
[DK/REF]

Respondents are randomly assigned (50/50) to get either:

NJ1 -> Local Items -> NJ2 -> National Items or

NJ1 -> National Items -> NJ2 -> Local Items

Local Items

[Intervening items held for later release]

L7. If you were to give NJ Transit a letter grade, like students get in school, what grade would you give NJ Transit? An A, a B, a C, a D or an F?

A
B
C
D
F
Not Sure [VOL]
DK/Ref [VOL]

[Intervening items held for later release]

National Items

Before getting back to New Jersey issues, we’d like to ask a few questions about national politics.

N1. Do you approve, or disapprove, of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure [Vol]
DK/Ref [vol]

[Randomly assign to N2A or N2B]

N2A. Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things. On the whole, do you support or oppose this bill?

Support
Oppose
Not Sure [Vol]
DK/Ref [vol]

N2B. Earlier this month, President Trump signed a budget bill. The bill cuts spending on medical care and gives substantial tax breaks to wealthier Americans among other things, like temporarily increasing how much of their property taxes homeowners can deduct from their taxes. On the whole, do you support or oppose this bill?

Support
Oppose
Not Sure [Vol]
DK/Ref [vol]

N3. When it comes to deporting immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally, would you say the Trump administration is doing…

Too much
Too Little
About the right amount

N4. Regardless of your own immigration or citizenship status, how much, if at all, do you worry that you, a family member, or a close friend could be deported?

A Lot
Some
Not Much
Not at All

NJ2. Just to confirm, in this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]

Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
Probably vote for Sherrill
Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
Probably won’t vote
Not sure [Vol]
Vote for Someone else [Vol]
[DK/REF]

Demographics

Just a few more questions, for statistical purposes

D1. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?

Democrat
Republican
Independent [ASK D1A]
Something Else/Other
DK/Ref [vol]

D1A. [Ask only if D1 is 3] Which way do you lean?

Democrat
Republican
Independent
Something Else/Other
DK/Ref [vol]

D1B. In addition, which of the following terms would you use to describe your political views? You can choose as many as you like. [Shuffle Order]

Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Socialist
Progressive
Libertarian
Make America Great Again or MAGA
Nationalist

D2A. To ensure we are reaching people of all ages, would you please tell me your age?

____ (ENTER AGE: 98=98+, 99 = REFUSED)

[IF Don’t Know/REFUSED IN QD1, ASK:]

D2B. Would you be willing to tell us whether it’s between…?

Under 30
31 to 44
45 to 64
65 or over
[Refused]

D6. Do you own or rent your current residence?

Own [or have a mortgage]
Rent
Something else [vol]
DK/REF [vol]

D3. What was the last grade in school you completed? [CODE TO LIST]

Did not complete High School
High School Diploma or equivalent
Vocational or Trade School
Some college, but no degree
Associates, or other 2 year degree
Bachelor’s Degree
Graduate work, such as Law, MBA, Medical School, or similar
Refused (VOL)

D4. How would you describe your sex? Do you describe yourself as …

A Man
A Woman
Some other way
[DK/REF]

D5. How would you describe your racial and ethnic background? You can pick as many as you’d like.

White
Black
Asian
Hispanic/Latino/a/Spanish
Middle Eastern or North African (MENA)
Other or Multi-Racial
[Dk/Ref]

Release Tables

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
	All	Dem	Indp	Rep
Approve	37%	5%	28%	88%
Disapprove	55%	92%	56%	10%
Not Sure	7%	3%	16%	3%
Don’t Know/Refused	0%	–	–	0%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
	All	White	Black	Hispanic
Approve	37%	42%	21%	30%
Disapprove	55%	53%	68%	54%
Not Sure	7%	5%	11%	16%
Don’t Know/Refused	0%	0%	–	–

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
	All	Men	Women
Approve	37%	44%	31%
Disapprove	55%	49%	61%
Not Sure	7%	7%	7%
Don’t Know/Refused	0%	0%	–

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
	White Men	White Women	Black Men	Black Women	Lat Men	Lat Women
Approve	49%	37%	24%	18%	38%	21%
Disapprove	47%	58%	61%	80%	49%	62%
Not Sure	4%	6%	15%	2%	13%	17%
DK/Refused	0%	–	–	–	–	–

When it comes to deporting immigrants who are living in the US illegally, would you say that the Trump administration is doing…
	All	Dem	Indp	Rep
Too Much	55%	85%	56%	15%
Too Little	10%	3%	8%	14%
About the Right Amount	34%	10%	37%	69%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	1%	–	2%

When it comes to deporting immigrants who are living in the US illegally, would you say that the Trump administration is doing…
	All	White	Black	Hispanic
Too Much	55%	52%	53%	64%
Too Little	10%	8%	12%	11%
About the Right Amount	34%	38%	33%	25%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	1%	2%	–

Regardless of your own immigration or citizenship status, how much, if at all, do you worry that you, a family member, or a close friend could be deported?
	All	Dem	Indp	Rep
A Lot	12%	20%	10%	6%
Some	16%	23%	16%	7%
Not Much	16%	16%	17%	13%
Not At All	55%	40%	57%	75%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	2%	–	–

Regardless of your own immigration or citizenship status, how much, if at all, do you worry that you, a family member, or a close friend could be deported?
	All	18-30	31-44	45-64	65+
A Lot	12%	17%	19%	10%	8%
Some	16%	22%	18%	14%	14%
Not Much	16%	19%	22%	16%	9%
Not At All	55%	43%	41%	60%	67%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	–	–	1%	1%

Regardless of your own immigration or citizenship status, how much, if at all, do you worry that you, a family member, or a close friend could be deported?
	All	White	Black	Hispanic
A Lot	12%	10%	11%	28%
Some	16%	15%	21%	22%
Not Much	16%	15%	16%	16%
Not At All	55%	59%	51%	34%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	1%	1%	–

Regardless of your own immigration or citizenship status, how much, if at all, do you worry that you, a family member, or a close friend could be deported?
	Northeast	Urban Core	Central	Northwest	Coast	South
A Lot	9%	22%	10%	7%	11%	16%
Some	16%	22%	18%	13%	14%	15%
Not Much	14%	16%	12%	15%	18%	17%
Not At All	60%	40%	60%	64%	56%	51%
Don’t Know/Refused	1%	1%	–	2%	1%	–