FDU Poll Finds Sherrill maintains lead in Governor’s Race

Candidate biographies, and some proposals seen positively by both sides; Ciattarelli viewed as more extreme

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, October 17, 2025 – With only a few weeks left before the general election between Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, the latest results from the FDU Poll show that Sherrill holds a seven-point lead, 52 to 45, with just 3 percent of voters saying that they’re still undecided. That lead reflects agreement among voters that Sherrill is less ideologically extreme than her opponent, even as some policy proposals from both of the candidates are viewed relatively positively.

As Election Day looms, both Democrats and Republicans have largely lined up behind their candidates: 93 percent of Democrats say that they’ll vote for Sherrill (up 6 points from July), and 96 percent of Republicans say that they’ll back Ciattarelli (up 10 points from July). Ciattarelli’s support among Republicans is a little softer than Sherrill’s among Democrats, with 11 percent of Republicans saying that they’ll “probably,” rather than “definitely” vote for their party’s nominee, versus 7 percent among Democrats. The biggest difference in the last few months has been the dwindling of undecided voters, who have gone from 16 percent of likely voters to 3 percent.

“So far, this race is going exactly as expected,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, and the Executive Director of the FDU Poll. “Undecided voters have almost all made up their minds, and partisans have put aside any misgivings and lined up behind their candidates.”

In addition to saying how they were planning to vote (or had already voted, if they voted early by mail), respondents were asked to rate both candidates on 10-point scales for ideology and favorability. On these measures, Sherrill is viewed slightly more favorably and is seen as being more moderate than her opponent.

Both candidates have overall favorability ratings close to the middle of the 1 (intensely dislike) to 10 (intensely like) scale: 5.5 for Sherrill, and 4.6 for Ciattarelli, and both are rated about equally by independent voters: 4.9 for Sherrill, and 4.7 for Ciattarelli. However, Sherrill is viewed more positively by Republicans (average of 2.6) than Ciattarelli is by Democrats (average of 2.0). Both candidates are, on average, rated as an 8.0 out of 10 by members of their own party.

On a 1 to 10 scale of ideology, where 1 is very conservative, and 10 is very liberal, Sherrill is rated, overall, at a 7.6 (2.4 points from the end of the spectrum), while Ciattarelli gets an average rating of 2.6 (1.6 points from the end of the spectrum). There is some disagreement, though: Republicans rate Sherrill at 8.6, while Democrats think that she’s much more moderate, rating her near the middle at 6.8. There’s less difference in ratings of Ciattarelli: Republicans give him a 2.8, while Democrats are only slightly lower, giving him a 2.3 on average.

“Generally, people think their opponent is way more extreme than their own candidate is, but that’s just not happening here,” said Cassino. “Democrats think Sherrill is much more moderate than Republicans do, but basically everyone agrees that Ciattarelli is very conservative, even members of his own party.”

Respondents in the poll were asked if they liked or disliked a series of traits and policy proposals that have been featured by Sherrill and Ciattarelli, with each respondent rating three for each of the two major candidates. These questions serve to show what voters like best about their party’s candidate, as well as what they like about the candidate that they aren’t voting for.

Both candidates have spent a lot of time talking about their biographies and backgrounds, and these are by far the most popular things about them. Ciattarelli being a lifelong resident of New Jersey – a trait that he has used to contrast with Sherill, who was born in Virginia – has a net favorability (percent liking minus percent disliking) of +60%. Voters also like that Ciattarelli is a father of four, a trait that earns him +57%, and is net positive (+39%) even among Democrats.

The Republican nominee’s policy positions, though, are less popular among independents and Democrats, while attracting strong support among Republicans. His opposition to wind farms off the Jersey Shore scores at +73% among Republicans but is rated negatively by both independents and Democrats, for an overall favorability of -7%. His call for a state level DOGE is viewed favorably by Republicans (+90%) and independents (+18%), but doesn’t attract Democratic support (-77%). CIattarelli’s support of Trump administration programs, including tariffs, is the least popular of the proposals ranked, with an overall net favorability of -18%, including -26% among independents.

Sherrill’s biographical traits – mother of four (+58%) and service as a Navy helicopter pilot (+53%) – are viewed favorably across the board, much more favorably than any of her policy proposals. Still, those proposals, like enshrining abortion rights in the State Constitution (+22% overall, +15% among independents), and fighting Trump administration programs (+17% overall, +28% among independents), are viewed positively enough by Democrats and independents that they have overall positive ratings. Sherrill’s most positively viewed proposal is freezing energy bills, which has an overall net favorability of +39%, and is only mildly disliked (-17%) among Republicans.

“There are limits to partisanship: voters like the biographies of both of these candidates,” said Cassino. “While there’s not much agreement on policies, there are some proposals, like rooting out waste and fraud, or freezing energy bills, that have some support across the political spectrum.”

Methodology

The FDU Poll is a proud member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and is devoted to ensuring that our results are presented in such a way that anyone can quickly and easily get all of the information that they may need to evaluate the validity of our surveys. We believe that transparency is the key to building trust in the work of high-quality public opinion research, and necessary to push our industry forward.

The survey was conducted between October 9 and 15, 2025, using a voter list of registered voters in New Jersey carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Contact attempts were limited to registered voters who had voted in one or both of the last two NJ gubernatorial elections or were newly registered since the last NJ gubernatorial election. These respondents were considered likely voters if they met these criteria and said that they intended to vote in November’s gubernatorial election.

Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 814 registered voters in the state. Surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews to landlines (131) and cellphones (275) and the remainder (409) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of registered voters in New Jersey. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, region and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.2, largely driven by the weights used on the race/ethnicity variable.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 814 registered voters is +/-3.4 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-3.9 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

814 Likely Voters in New Jersey

Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

Man                                

46%                 N = 377
Woman                            

52%                 N = 426
Some Other Way          

1%                  N = 7

18-30                          

15%                N = 122
31-44                          

20%                 N = 163
45-64                          

34%                 N = 279
65+                              

31%                 N = 249

White                                           

64%                N = 522
Black                                              

14%                N = 111
Hispanic/Latino/a                                     

12%                N = 101
Asian                                       

4%                  N = 34
MENA                                      

2%                  N = 16
Other/Multi-racial                                    

2%                  N = 18

No college degree                      

58%                N = 471
College degree or more             

42%                N = 338

Democrat (including leaners)    

46%                N = 370
Independent (no lean)                

16%                N = 130
Republican (including leaners)  

38%                N = 305

Question Wording and Order

First off, we’d like to ask you about this Fall’s race for governor.

NJ1. In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]

1. Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
2. Probably vote for Sherrill
3. Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
4. Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
5. Probably won’t vote
6. Not sure [Vol]
7. Vote for Someone else [Vol]
8. [DK/REF]

NJ2. There are things voters like and dislike about each of the candidates. I’m going to present three things about what each has said about themselves, or promises to do in office. For each, tell me if it’s something you like about that candidate, something that you dislike about that candidate, or if you’re not sure.

[For each, randomly select three of the traits to present]

Responses for each:

1. Like
2. Dislike
3. Not Sure

Sherrill

1. Served as a Navy helicopter pilot
2. Mother of four
3. Has promised to enshrine abortion rights in the State Constitution
4. Has vowed to fight against Trump administration programs that would hurt New Jersey
5. Has promised to freeze energy bills

Ciattarelli

1. Lifelong resident of New Jersey
2. Opposes wind farms off the Jersey shore
3. Wants to have a state level DOGE, like the one run by Elon Musk in Washington, to root out waste and inefficiency
4. Father of four
5. Has supported President Trump’s policies, including tariffs

NJ3. On a scale where 1 is very conservative, and 10 is very liberal, where would you place:

1. Mikie Sherrill
2. Jack Ciattarelli

NJ4. On a scale where 1 is intensely dislike, and 10 is intensely like, how much do you like:

1. Mikie Sherrill
2. Jack Ciattarelli

Further Questions Held for Later Release

Release Tables

Media Contact:                           

Dan Cassino 

Executive Director, FDU Poll    

973.896.7072/ dcassino@fdu.edu