FDU Poll Finds Subtle Sexism Hurts Sherrill

 

 

 

 

 

Beliefs about gender roles shape how voters evaluate Democratic candidate

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, October 24, 2025 – While overtly sexist attacks – claims that women are unfit to hold high office – are mostly a thing of the past, beliefs about the proper roles of men and women in society, and how voters see their own gender, is playing a major role in the race for governor in New Jersey. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, people who hold traditional views of gender roles, even within the Democratic Party, are much less likely to support Sherrill. In addition, whether Sherrill is seeing as adhering to traditional gender roles – for instance, by being a mother of four – or subverting them – for instance, with her military background – changes how voters perceive her.

“Female candidates face a lot of hurdles that male candidates simply do not,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, and the Executive Director of the FDU Poll. “Sherrill has to be non-traditional enough to be taken seriously as a candidate, and traditional enough to not be threatening. Like Ginger Rogers, she has to do everything male candidates do, but backwards and in high heels.”

Adherence to traditional views of men’s and women’s roles in society was measured in two ways. First, respondents were asked to agree or disagree with a number of statements about how men should behave, things like “I think a young man should try to be physically tough, even if he’s not big,” and “men should not be too quick to tell others that they care about them.” These form a validated psychological scale called the Men’s Role Norm Inventory, or MRNI. Respondents were placed into three groups of roughly equal size based on their scores on this measure: low MRNI (less acceptance of traditional views of how men should act), moderate MRNI and high MRNI (most acceptance of traditional views of how men should act).

As might be expected, voters who value men’s traditional gender roles are much less likely to support Sherrill. Among people in the low MRNI category, Sherrill leads 82 percent to 16 percent; among those in the high MRNI group, Ciattarelli leads 88 percent to 11 percent.

Some of the gap between low and high MRNI voters is driven by partisanship: Republicans and men, on average, have higher MRNI scores (more traditional views of how men should behave) than Democrats and women. Fifty-three percent of Democrats are in the low MRNI group, and 55 percent of Republicans are in the high MRNI group. But even within partisan groups, having traditional views of men’s roles matters. Among Republicans in the low MRNI group, 11 percent say that they’re supporting Sherrill. Among those in the moderate or high MRNI groups, that figure is less than 2 percent. Similarly, 96 percent of Democrats in the low MRNI group say that they’re supporting Sherrill, a figure which drops to 87 percent among those with a moderate MRNI score, and 76 percent for those with a high MRNI score.

“Beliefs about gender are a major cross-pressure in this election,” said Cassino. “There are plenty of Democrats, mostly older, and mostly men, who think men are supposed to be in charge, and it’s going to be really tough for any female candidate to win them over.”

Respondents’ adherence to traditional gender roles was also measured by asking them to separately rate their own masculinity and femininity on a scale that runs from “completely” to “not at all.” Just about half of men (51 percent) say that they’re “completely masculine,” and about half of women (49 percent) say that they’re “completely feminine.” These individuals, who adhere to traditional gender roles, have very different political and social views than men who say that they’re anything other than “completely masculine,” or women who say that they’re anything other than “completely feminine.”

Republicans are more likely to be in the “completely” groups than Democrats, with 65 percent of Republican men saying that they’re “completely masculine,” (compared to 42 percent of Democratic men) and 61 percent of Republican women saying that they’re “completely feminine,” (compared to 47 percent of Democratic women).

Among “completely masculine” men, Ciattarelli has a commanding lead, 68 percent to 29 percent, while among all other men, the two candidates are tied (52 percent for Sherrill, and 47 percent for Cattarelli). Sherrill has a modest lead among “completely feminine” women (54 percent to 40 percent), and a large one among other women, 70 to 26.

“People who are tied to traditional gender roles tend not to like female candidates for governor or President,” said Cassino. “Traditionally masculine men see female candidates as a threat; traditionally feminine women see them as violating norms of what women are supposed to do.”

To see how views of gender impact how voters evaluate Sherrill, the survey included an experiment. Respondents were randomly assigned to hear three of five different statements about each of the candidates. Among the statements about Sherrill were a statement designed to appeal to traditional views of women (that she is a mother of four), and one designed to subvert traditional views of women (her military service as a Navy helicopter pilot). Both of these traits have been featured prominently in Sherrill’s advertising campaigns and speeches.

After hearing the statements, voters were asked to rate each candidate on a 1-10 scale of favorability. Overall, voters who were told that Sherrill was a mother of four rated her 0.4 points higher on the scale. That increase came not from men, but from women, especially women who hold traditional gender identities themselves, who scored her a full point higher (increase from an average of 5.4 to 6.4) after hearing the statement.

“Talking about being a mom helps Sherrill win over older, more traditional women who might otherwise be skeptical of a female candidate,” said Cassino. “She’s saying that she’s a mom, a traditional woman herself, and that gets those older, more traditional women to like her more.”

The gender-atypical statement, that Sherrill served as a Navy helicopter pilot, had a very different effect on favorability. Overall, the reminder of Sherrill’s military background had no impact on favorability, but that’s because it decreased her favorability with “completely feminine” women (by 0.5 points) and increased it among all other women (by 0.6 points). It also increased favorability non-significantly among men.

“When Sherrill talks about her military service, she’s performing masculinity,” said Cassino. “That’s going to help among women who aren’t tied to traditional feminine identities, but hurts her among those that do.”

Beliefs about gender are also an underlying issue among some groups that have trended towards Republicans since President Trump first ran for office in 2016. Young men, in New Jersey and elsewhere, tend to have more traditional views of gender than middle-aged men do, though traditionalism is still generally higher among older men. Similarly, African-American and Hispanic men tend to hold more traditional ideas about gender roles than white men.

“Gender didn’t impact voting as much in the past as it does today,” said Cassino. “The more gendered issues like abortion, trans and gay rights, and even gendered figures like Trump are central to elections, the harder it has been for Democrats to hold on to voters with more traditional ideas about gender.” 

Methodology

The FDU Poll is a proud member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and is devoted to ensuring that our results are presented in such a way that anyone can quickly and easily get all of the information that they may need to evaluate the validity of our surveys. We believe that transparency is the key to building trust in the work of high-quality public opinion research, and necessary to push our industry forward.

The survey was conducted between October 9 and 15, 2025, using a voter list of registered voters in New Jersey carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Contact attempts were limited to registered voters who had voted in one or both of the last two NJ gubernatorial elections or were newly registered since the last NJ gubernatorial election. These respondents were considered likely voters if they met these criteria and said that they intended to vote in November’s gubernatorial election.

Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 814 registered voters in the state. Surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews to landlines (131) and cellphones (275) and the remainder (409) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of registered voters in New Jersey. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, region and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.2, largely driven by the weights used on the race/ethnicity variable.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 814 registered voters is +/-3.4 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-3.9 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

814 Likely Voters in New Jersey

Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

 

Man                                

46%                 N = 377
Woman                            

52%                 N = 426
Some Other Way          

1%                  N = 7

 

18-30                          

15%                N = 122
31-44                          

20%                 N = 163
45-64                          

34%                 N = 279
65+                              

31%                 N = 249

 

White                                           

64%                N = 522
Black                                              

14%                N = 111
Hispanic/Latino/a                                     

12%                N = 101
Asian                                       

4%                  N = 34
MENA                                      

2%                  N = 16
Other/Multi-racial                                    

2%                  N = 18

 

No college degree                      

58%                N = 471
College degree or more             

42%                N = 338

 

Democrat (including leaners)    

46%                N = 370
Independent (no lean)                

16%                N = 130
Republican (including leaners)  

38%                N = 305

 

Question Wording and Order

First off, we’d like to ask you about this Fall’s race for governor.

NJ1. In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, or do you think you’ll not vote? [Shuffle order of Sherrill and Ciattarelli in question]

1. Definitely vote for Democrat Mikie Sherrill
2. Probably vote for Sherrill
3. Definitely vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
4. Probably vote for Republican Jack Ciattarelli
5. Probably won’t vote
6. Not sure [Vol]
7. Vote for Someone else [Vol]
8. [DK/REF]

NJ2. There are things voters like and dislike about each of the candidates. I’m going to present three things about what each has said about themselves, or promises to do in office. For each, tell me if it’s something you like about that candidate, something that you dislike about that candidate, or if you’re not sure.

[For each, randomly select three of the traits to present]

Responses for each:

1. Like
2. Dislike
3. Not Sure

Sherrill

1. Served as a Navy helicopter pilot
2. Mother of four
3. Has promised to Enshrine Abortion Rights in the State Constitution
4. Has vowed to fight against Trump administration programs that would hurt New Jersey
5. Has promised to freeze energy bills

Ciattarelli

1. Lifelong Resident of New Jersey
2. Opposes Wind Farms off the Jersey Shore
3. Wants to have a state level DOGE, like the one run by Elon Musk in Washington, to root out waste and inefficiency
4. Father of four
5. Has supported President Trump’s policies, including tariffs

 

NJ3. On a scale where 1 is very conservative, and 10 is very liberal, where would you place:

1. Mikie Sherrill
2. Jack Ciattarelli

NJ4. On a scale where 1 is intensely dislike, and 10 is intensely like, how much do you like:

1. Mikie Sherrill
2. Jack Ciattarelli

Intervening items held for later release

O5. Gender roles in the US have been changing rapidly, and we’d like to hear what you think about how men should act today. For each of the following statements, tell me whether you strongly agree or disagree, agree or disagree but not strongly, or have no opinion.

1. Strongly Agree
2. Agree
3. No opinion
4. Disagree
5. Strongly Disagree
6. [Vol] Don’t know/ Refused

 

1. Men should watch football games instead of soap operas
2. Boys should prefer to play with trucks rather than dolls.
3. A man should always be the boss
4. I think a young man should try to be physically tough, even if he’s not big.
5. Men should not be too quick to tell others that they care about them

Demos

Just a few more questions, for statistical purposes

D1. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else? 

1. Democrat                    
2. Republican 
3. Independent  [ASK D1A]                                                                                   
4. Something Else/Other                          
5. DK/Ref [vol]

D1A. [Ask only if D1 is 3] Which way do you lean?

1. Democrat 
2. Republican
3. Independent                                                                
4. Something Else/Other                          
5. DK/Ref [vol]

D1B. In addition, which of the following terms would you use to describe your political views? You can choose as many as you like. [Shuffle Order]

1. Liberal
2. Moderate
3. Conservative
4. Socialist
5. Progressive
6. Libertarian
7. Make America Great Again or MAGA
8. Nationalist

D2A. To ensure we are reaching people of all ages, would you please tell me your age?

            ____    (ENTER AGE: 98=98+, 99 = REFUSED)

            [IF Don’t Know/REFUSED IN QD1, ASK:] 

D2B.  Would you be willing to tell us whether it’s between…?

1. Under 30
2. 31 to 44
3. 45 to 64
4. 65 or over
5. [Refused]

D3. What was the last grade in school you completed? [CODE TO LIST]

1. Did not complete High School
2. High School Diploma or equivalent
3. Vocational or Trade School
4. Some college, but no degree
5. Associates, or other 2 year degree
6. Bachelor’s Degree
7. Graduate work, such as Law, MBA, Medical School, or similar
8. Refused (VOL)

D4. How would you describe your sex? Do you describe yourself as …

1. A Man
2. A Woman
3. Some other way
4. [DK/REF]

D5. How would you describe your racial and ethnic background? You can pick as many as you’d like.

1. White
2. Black
3. Asian 
4. Hispanic/Latino/a/Spanish
5. Middle Eastern or North African (MENA)
6. Other or Multi-Racial
7. [Dk/Ref]

D6. The traits that we see as being masculine or feminine are largely determined by society, and have changed dramatically over time. As a result, everyone has some combination of masculine and feminine traits, which may or may not correspond with whether they’re male or female. How do you see yourself? Would you say that you see yourself as…

1. Completely Masculine
2. Mostly Masculine
3. Slightly Masculine
4. Slightly Feminine
5. Mostly Feminine
6. Completely Feminine
7. [Dk/Ref]

Release Tables

In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote?
	All	Dem	Indp	Rep
Definitely vote for Sherrill	47%	85%	35%	2%
Probably vote for Sherrill	5%	7%	10%	1%
Total Sherrill	52%	93%	44%	3%
Probably vote for Ciattarelli	7%	3%	12%	11%
Definitely vote for Ciattarelli	38%	2%	34%	85%
Total Ciattarelli	45%	4%	45%	96%
Not Sure	3%	3%	8%	1%
Vote for Someone Else	1%	1%	2%	0%

 

In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote?
	Completely Masculine Men	Other Men	Completely Feminine Women	Other Women
Definitely vote for Sherrill	25%	44%	48%	63%
Probably vote for Sherrill	3%	8%	6%	7%
Total Sherrill	29%	52%	54%	70%
Probably vote for Ciattarelli	8%	11%	4%	3%
Definitely vote for Ciattarelli	60%	36%	35%	23%
Total Ciattarelli	68%	47%	40%	26%
Not Sure	2%	1%	4%	4%
Vote for Someone Else	2%	–	2%	–

 

How Masculine/Feminine would you say that you are?
	Masculinity – Men	Masculinity – Women	Femininity – Men	Femininity- Women
Completely	51%	1%	0%	49%
Mostly	35%	0%	–	37%
Somewhat	11%	16%	5%	11%
Not Very	2%	25%	28%	3%
Not at All	–	57%	67%	0%

 

How Masculine would you say that you are? [Men Only]
	Overall	Dems – Men	Indp – Men	Reps – Men
Completely	51%	42%	39%	65%
Mostly	35%	42%	37%	28%
Somewhat	11%	11%	24%	7%
Not Very	2%	6%	–	1%
Not at All	–	–	–	–

 

How Feminine would you say that you are? [Women Only]
	Overall	Dems – Women	Indp – Women	Reps – Women
Completely	49%	47%	34%	61%
Mostly	37%	39%	47%	28%
Somewhat	11%	11%	13%	8%
Not Very	3%	3%	5%	2%
Not at All	0%	–	–	1%

 

Masculine Role Norms Inventory Score
	Overall	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
Low MRNI	33%	53%	30%	13%
Moderate MRNI	38%	41%	44%	32%
High MRNI	30%	7%	26%	55%

 

In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote?
	All	Low MRNI	Moderate MRNI	High MRNI
Definitely vote for Sherrill	47%	71%	42%	9%
Probably vote for Sherrill	5%	10%	6%	1%
Total Sherrill	52%	82%	48%	11%
Probably vote for Ciattarelli	7%	5%	5%	13%
Definitely vote for Ciattarelli	38%	11%	39%	75%
Total Ciattarelli	45%	16%	44%	88%
Not Sure	3%	2%	6%	1%
Vote for Someone Else	1%	–	2%	–

 

In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote?
	Republicans	Reps Low MRNI	Reps Moderate MRNI	Reps High MRNI
Definitely vote for Sherrill	2%	6%	2%	2%
Probably vote for Sherrill	1%	6%	–	–
Total Sherrill	3%	11%	2%	2%
Probably vote for Ciattarelli	11%	17%	7%	13%
Definitely vote for Ciattarelli	85%	66%	89%	86%
Total Ciattarelli	96%	83%	95%	98%
Not Sure	1%	6%	1%	–
Vote for Someone Else	0%	–	1%	–

 

In this November’s gubernatorial election, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, the Republican Jack Ciattarelli, someone else, or do you not plan to vote?
	Democrats	Dems Low MRNI	Dems Moderate MRNI	Dems High MRNI
Definitely vote for Sherrill	85%	89%	78%	65%
Probably vote for Sherrill	7%	7%	9%	12%
Total Sherrill	93%	96%	87%	76%
Probably vote for Ciattarelli	3%	2%	3%	6%
Definitely vote for Ciattarelli	2%	1%	3%	6%
Total Ciattarelli	4%	3%	7%	12%
Not Sure	3%	1%	3%	12%
Vote for Someone Else	1%	–	3%	–

 

Effect of “Mother of Four” and “Navy Helicopter Pilot” primes on favorability (1-10 scale)
	Completely Masculine Men	Other Men	Completely Feminine Women	Other Women
No Mother Prime	4.0	5.2	5.4	6.3
Mother Prime	3.8	5.1	6.4	6.7
Effect of Mother Prime	-0.2	0.0	1.0	0.4
No Helicopter Pilot Prime	4.1	5.1	6.2	6.1
Helicopter Pilot Prime	4.3	5.2	5.8	6.8
Effect of Helicopter Pilot Prime	0.2	0.1	-0.5	0.6

 

Media Contact:                           

Dan Cassino 

Executive Director, FDU Poll    

973.896.7072/ dcassino@fdu.edu