FDU Poll: NJ Residents Under 30 more Progressive, but not more Democratic
For Immediate Release
Contact:
Dan Cassino
Executive Director, FDU Poll
973.896.7072/ dcassino@fdu.edu
NJ Residents Under 30 are more Progressive, but not more Democratic
Express skepticism about democracy, capitalism, political parties
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, December 16, 2022 – Young New Jerseyans are likely to hold progressive views on issues like climate change and universal healthcare, but they are not appreciably more likely to be Democratic than older voters in the state. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, those progressive views seem to be tempered by a general distrust of the political parties, and even of democracy as an institution. The poll also showed that non-white voters in New Jersey are not monolithically Democrats, potentially creating opportunities for Republicans going forward.
The online survey of 1,678 young adults ages 18 to 30 was designed to look at the views of young people in New Jersey, with separate samples of young men nationwide, and a smaller sample of young women nationwide included for comparison purposes.
“It’s not as simple as young voters being more Democratic,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the Executive Director of the Poll. “We’re seeing that the past few years of American life have shaped their political and social views into something entirely new and different.”
Overall, young people in New Jersey are not significantly more Democratic than voters overall in the state. In FDU’s 2022 pre-election poll, 50 percent of New Jersey voters identified as Democrats (or leaning towards the Democratic party), compared with 52 percent of residents ages 18 to 30. They are, however, less likely to identify as Republicans: 25 percent of young residents do so, compared with 33 percent of 2022 voters. Just as with other Garden Staters, young women are much more likely to be Democrats than young men (61 percent versus 46 percent), and less likely to be Republicans (20 percent versus 29 percent). Put another way, young men in New Jersey are 17 points more likely to be Democrats than Republicans; young women are 41 points more likely.
Former President Trump is particularly unpopular among young New Jerseyans: just 19 percent say that they voted for him in 2020, compared 48 percent who say that they voted for Biden. Even twenty-two percent of young Republicans in the state say that they supported Biden over Trump in that election.
There are some warning signs for Democrats, though. They have only a narrow edge among whites ages 18 to 30 (43 percent Democratic, 37 percent Republican), and their support among other racial and ethnic groups is far from monolithic. Sixty-three percent of African-American young people identify as Democrats, but that figure is just 56 percent among Asian-Americans and 53 percent among Hispanics.
“We’ve seen challenges for Democrats nationwide among non-white groups,” said Cassino. “Democrats cannot afford to take non-white voters, especially non-white men, for granted in elections.”
Young New Jersey residents are also not much different from other residents on abortion. Forty-nine percent of 18-30 year old residents say that they think abortion should “be legal under any circumstance,” compared with 51 percent among 2022 voters in the state. Not surprisingly, there is a substantial gap based on party, with 64 percent of young Democrats saying that it should always be legal, compared to 34 percent of Republicans. Independents, who say that they don’t lean towards either party, are much closer to the Republican stance, with 37 percent supporting abortion under any circumstance. Still, abortion bans – making it illegal in all circumstances – is very unpopular, with only 3 percent of Democrats, 5 percent of independents and 15 percent of Republicans holding such a view.
“Young people in New Jersey are rejecting abortion bans,” said Cassino. “For Republicans, the challenge is distancing themselves from extreme views in their own party if that want to have a chance with under 30s.”
In the survey, young residents also expressed a degree of skepticism about the way government works. Seventy-eight percent agree that “the current political parties are too corrupt and ineffective to actually get anything done,” with 42 percent “strongly” agreeing. This view goes across party lines: the figure is 78 percent among Democrats, and 76 percent among Republicans. This extends even to their view of democracy as an institution: 56 percent agree that “democracy is still the best way to run a government,” though Republicans are less likely to embrace that message than Democrats. Only 58 percent of Republicans agree, compared with 75 percent of Democrats. Independents are the most skeptical: only 36 percent agree.
“The fact that support for democracy, as a concept is this low should be a wakeup call for everyone,” said Cassino. “Young people don’t feel like they’ve seen democracy work, and that’s led to the very basis of our system become politicized.”
This uncertainty about the value of existing institutions goes beyond politics, and into economics as well. Forty-nine percent of residents under 30 disagree with the statement “capitalism makes sure that everyone gets exactly what they deserve in life.” That figure is 53 percent among Democrats, and 37 percent among Republicans.
Not all of the views are quite so heavily politicized. A majority of young New Jerseyans, Democrats and Republicans alike, agree that climate change represents an existential threat to society. That figure is 84 percent among Democrats, and while it’s lower among Republicans, it’s still 60 percent. Similarly, eighty-eight percent of Democrats, and 75 percent of Republicans 30 and under agree that the government should make sure that everyone has free access to basic healthcare.
“On issues like climate change and healthcare, young people seem to be well to the left of older voters,” said Cassino. “Among young people, these don’t even look like political issues: they’re just truths universally acknowledged.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted between December 1 and 4, 2022, using a multi-stream non-probability online stratified sample collected by CINT. Respondents were solicited to be part of the survey via online ads or membership in existing online panels. This multi-stream approach is used to maximize the diversity of the sample, but the online nature of the data collection means that some groups, such as those who do not use the internet, are necessarily excluded from the data. This means that the respondents, like respondents in all online surveys, cannot be said to be representative of the public as a whole, and the results, while weighted to approximate the characteristics of the population as a whole, may differ from that population in ways that are difficult to ascertain from within the dataset. However, the other characteristics of the sample (especially age) limit the bias resulting from these exclusions in the results presented here.
The sample was primarily designed to measure the attitudes of men ages 18 to 30 in New Jersey and across the United States, with samples in New Jersey including both men and women in that age group, and the national sample strongly oversampling men, with women used as a control/contrast group. The final sample included 534 respondents who reported going to high school in New Jersey (regardless of their current residence; 589 currently reside in New Jersey) and 1,144 respondents who went to high school in other states (1,089 who reside elsewhere). Surveys were conducted only in English.
Data for the New Jersey sample was weighted by age, reported sex and race to 2021 Census estimates for those categories.
If this were a simple random survey of the targeted populations, the margin of error for a sample of 589 New Jersey residents 18-30 years old would be +/-4.0 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. The margin of error for a sample of 1,089 US residents 18-30 years old would be +/-3.1 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. The non-probability nature of the data collection means that the use of such figures is controversial within the survey research community
This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.
Respondents were randomly assigned to be asked some, but not all, of the survey segments. As such, samples that draw from items across different survey segments may have slightly different characteristics.
Weighted Sample Characteristics
589 New Jersey Residents and 1,089 US residents ages 18-30
NJ Sample, Weighted
Man 47% N = 281
Woman 45% N = 269
Something Else 5% N = 29
18-21 36% N = 215
22-25 33% N = 197
26-30 31% N = 186
White
48% N = 288
Black
20% N = 117
Hispanic/Latino/a
26% N = 154
Asian
10% N = 59
Other/Multi-racial
12% N = 71
National (non-NJ) Sample, unweighted
Man 87% N = 942
Woman 8% N = 88
Something Else 4% N = 46
18-21, Other State 33% N = 376
22-25, Other State 35% N = 403
26-30, Other State 32% N = 366
White
43% N = 822
Black
28% N = 540
Hispanic/Latino/a
17% N = 332
Asian
7% N = 140
Other/Multi-racial
5% N = 90
Question Wording and Order
P1. [Half of the Respondents get this question here; half get it before P4] Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?
- Legal under any circumstances
- Legal only under certain circumstances
- Illegal in all circumstances
- [Don’t Know/Refused]
P2. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?
- Democrat
- Republican
- Independent [ASK P2A]
- Something Else/Other
- DK/Ref
P2A. [Ask only if P2 is 3] Which way do you lean?
- Democrat
- Republican
- Independent
- Something Else/Other
- DK/Ref
P3. In the 2020 Presidential election, did you vote for Joe Biden, Donald Trump, someone else, or did you not vote?
- Biden
- Trump
- Someone Else
P4. For the following statements, please indicate if you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly. [Shuffle order of items]
- Democracy is still the best way to run a government
- Climate change represents an existential threat to our society
- The government should make sure that everyone has free access to basic healthcare
- Capitalism makes sure that everyone gets exactly what they deserve in life
- It is immoral for any one person to have a billion dollars
- Agree strongly
- Agree somewhat
- Disagree somewhat
- Disagree strongly
- Don’t Know
- Prefer not to say
Release Tables
|
Party Identification (including leaners) |
||||
|
|
NJ |
18-21 |
22-25 |
26-30 |
|
Democrat or Lean Dem |
52% |
56% |
48% |
52% |
|
Independent |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
|
Republican or Lean Rep |
25% |
23% |
28% |
23% |
|
Party Identification (including leaners) |
|||
|
|
NJ |
Men |
Women |
|
Democrat or Lean Dem |
52% |
46% |
61% |
|
Independent |
23% |
25% |
19% |
|
Republican or Lean Rep |
25% |
29% |
20% |
|
Party Identification (including leaners) |
|||||
|
|
NJ |
White |
AA/Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|
Democrat or Lean Dem |
52% |
43% |
63% |
56% |
53% |
|
Independent |
23% |
20% |
22% |
16% |
40% |
|
Republican or Lean Rep |
25% |
37% |
15% |
28% |
7% |
|
Do you think abortion should be… |
|||
|
|
NJ |
Men |
Women |
|
Legal under any circumstances |
49% |
44% |
56% |
|
Legal only under certain circumstances |
33% |
34% |
32% |
|
Illegal in all circumstances |
7% |
9% |
5% |
|
Don’t Know/Refused |
11% |
13% |
7% |
|
Do you think abortion should be… |
||||
|
|
NJ |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Legal under any circumstances |
49% |
64% |
37% |
34% |
|
Legal only under certain circumstances |
33% |
24% |
42% |
47% |
|
Illegal in all circumstances |
7% |
3% |
5% |
15% |
|
Don’t Know/Refused |
11% |
9% |
16% |
4% |
|
In the 2020 Presidential Election, did you vote for.. (or did you not get a chance to vote)? |
||||
|
|
NJ |
18-21 |
22-25 |
26-30 |
|
Biden |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
|
Trump |
19% |
11% |
26% |
23% |
|
Someone Else/ Didn’t Vote |
33% |
41% |
26% |
29% |
|
In the 2020 Presidential Election, did you vote for.. (or did you not get a chance to vote)? |
|||
|
|
NJ |
Men |
Women |
|
Biden |
48% |
44% |
52% |
|
Trump |
19% |
22% |
19% |
|
Someone Else/ Didn’t Vote |
33% |
34% |
29% |
|
In the 2020 Presidential Election, did you vote for.. (or did you not get a chance to vote)? |
||||
|
|
NJ |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Biden |
48% |
80% |
40% |
22% |
|
Trump |
19% |
6% |
15% |
59% |
|
Someone Else/ Didn’t Vote |
33% |
14% |
45% |
19% |
|
Democracy is still the best way to run a government |
||||
|
|
NJ |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Agree Strongly |
28% |
43% |
14% |
27% |
|
Agree Somewhat |
28% |
32% |
22% |
31% |
|
Disagree Somewhat |
16% |
10% |
24% |
16% |
|
Disagree Strongly |
8% |
6% |
16% |
13% |
|
Don’t Know |
20% |
9% |
24% |
13% |
|
The current political parties are too corrupt and ineffective to actually get anything done |
||||
|
|
NJ |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Agree Strongly |
42% |
40% |
47% |
41% |
|
Agree Somewhat |
36% |
38% |
35% |
35% |
|
Disagree Somewhat |
13% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
|
Disagree Strongly |
4% |
3% |
0% |
8% |
|
Don’t Know |
5% |
5% |
6% |
5% |
|
Climate Change represents an existential threat to our society |
||||
|
|
NJ |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Agree Strongly |
49% |
65% |
38% |
27% |
|
Agree Somewhat |
24% |
19% |
27% |
33% |
|
Disagree Somewhat |
16% |
9% |
21% |
23% |
|
Disagree Strongly |
4% |
1% |
7% |
8% |
|
Don’t Know |
7% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
|
The government should make sure that everyone has free access to basic healthcare |
||||
|
|
NJ |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Agree Strongly |
63% |
74% |
64% |
40% |
|
Agree Somewhat |
19% |
14% |
12% |
35% |
|
Disagree Somewhat |
7% |
4% |
11% |
9% |
|
Disagree Strongly |
7% |
4% |
8% |
12% |
|
Don’t Know |
4% |
4% |
5% |
4% |
|
Capitalism makes sure that everyone gets exactly what they deserve in life |
||||
|
|
NJ |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Agree Strongly |
13% |
16% |
8% |
11% |
|
Agree Somewhat |
22% |
18% |
23% |
32% |
|
Disagree Somewhat |
27% |
30% |
17% |
29% |
|
Disagree Strongly |
22% |
23% |
35% |
8% |
|
Don’t Know |
16% |
13% |
17% |
20% |
|
It is immoral for any one person to have a billion dollars |
||||
|
|
NJ |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Agree Strongly |
21% |
26% |
15% |
16% |
|
Agree Somewhat |
23% |
29% |
23% |
11% |
|
Disagree Somewhat |
25% |
25% |
26% |
24% |
|
Disagree Strongly |
24% |
17% |
26% |
35% |
|
Don’t Know |
7% |
3% |
10% |
14% |